Box Office: HSM3 Down 10% On Saturday, $42M Projected; Saw V Tops $30M
By Steve Mason/Oct. 26, 2008 2:08 pm EST
Some of my regular sources said the HSM3 would drop on Saturday because it was fueled by teens. More of them expected to see a Saturday increase because many tweens would need Mom to take them to see the movie Saturday. On Friday night, I used the latter model and projected $55M. As it turns out, High School Musical 3 dipped by about 10% on Saturday to $15.3M or so. That means a much lower 3-day number of an estimated $42M. Make no mistake. That is a huge number. Disney will get this movie to $150M, it’s just a question of how.
Still it’s noteworthy that HSM3 represents my own personal all-time worst 3-day projection. I released a $55M estimate Friday, and the result was $42M. That’s a full 25% too high. Predictions and projections remain a “black art.” No matter how long I do it, I can still be completely blindsided.
Everything else I wrote Friday night was basically right (although, Saw V did get just over $30.5M as opposed to my $29M projection).
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
NEW – High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) – $42M, $11,593 PTA, $42M cume
NEW – Saw V (Lionsgate) – $30.5M, $9,967 PTA, $30.5M cume
Max Payne (Fox) – $7.6M, $2,248 PTA, $29.66M cume
Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) – $6.91M, $2,168 PTA, $78.14M cume
NEW – Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) – $6.32M, $2,447 PTA, $6.32M cume
W. (Lionsgate) – $5.33M, $2,600 PTA, $18.74M cume
Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.13M, $2,008 PTA, $87.98M cume
Body of Lies (Warner Bros) – $4.06M, $1,891 PTA, $30.89M cume
Quarantine (Sony) – $2.55M, $1,145 PTA, $28.77M cume
*Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) – $929,000, $8,682 PTA, $2.83M
*NEW – The Changeling (Universal) – $502,000, $33,467 PTA, $502,000 cume
*NEW – Passengers (Sony Classics) – $185,000, $1,480 PTA, $185,000 cume
*Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) – $175,000, $9,211 PTA, $435,00 cume
*NEW – Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics) – $173,000, $19,222 PTA, $173,000 cume
*NEW – I’ve Loved You So Long (Sony Classics) – $75,200, $7,520 PTA, $316,000 cume
