Box Office: The Simpsons Aims For $55 Million Weekend
By Steve Mason/July 27, 2007 5:39 pm EST
Un-Aided Awareness, the industry tracking measure of buzz and anticipation, is running at only 12%, a rather unspectacular number. For comparison, Fantastic Four 2 went off with 15% in that column, Spidey 3 opened at 41% and Pirates 3 at 49%,
Probably, the best film to use as a gauge to how big The Simpsons Movie will open is Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount). Based on these numbers, I’m targeting The Simpsons Movie at $52M-$55M this weekend, which is considerably higher than the tracking services are calling for. I’m told that NRG is calling for $40M, MarketCast is calling for $40M and OTX forecasts $38M. I say The Simpsons Movie opens with $20M+ today, but it will be very frontloaded.
I go on to write that No Reservations will finish at about $12.5M and Who’s Your Caddy? and I Know Who Killed Me will both finish the weekend with $4M-$5M.
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