Box Office Tracking: Bride Wars May Hold Off Marley & Me And Gran Torino For Weekend Win!
By Steve Mason/Jan. 8, 2009 1:46 am EST
Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rottern Tomatoes as of Wednesday night),
but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.
Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino has platformed perfectly and looks particularly strong for its wide break. Its Definite Interest number in industry tracking approaches 50 and its First Choice is a couple of ticks below 20, but much of its appeal is older, and it has a strong R rating. I’m forecasting something in the mid-teens and a good solid 3rd place finish, although an upside surprise is certainly possible. It’s not inconceivable that Gran Torino could pull off an upset and win the weekend, but I would be surprised given that it is on 400 or so fewer screens than Bride Wars.
It’s January, which means that there is always room for a horror movie. This week’s supernatural potboiler is David S. Goyer’s The Unborn (Rogue/Universal), from the low budget horror specialists at Platinum Dunes (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Hitcher remake and The Invisible both in 2007). Tracking suggests that the response for this one will possibly be a rather muted $12.35M by Monday.
The Curious Case of Banjamin Button (Paramount) and Bedtime Stories (Disney) will battle for the #5 spot, and I am giving Button the slight edge. Fincher’s epic, adapted from an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, is on an awards carpet ride from now through February, and hardcore movies fans will want to rush out and see Ben Button prior to Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony on NBC.
The other wide new release is Bill Duke’s Not Easily Broken (Sony) starring Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Hemson. Awareness is low and with well fewer than 1,000 screens, the movie is unlikely to top $3.5M.
FINAL PREDICTED WEEKEND GROSSES FOR JANUARY 9-11
NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $19M
Marley & Me (Fox) – $15.16M
Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $14.63M
NEW – The Unborn (Universal) – $12.35M
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $11.83M
Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $11.06M
Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $9M
Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $8.9M
Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.27M
Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.7M
NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $3.43M
Doubt (Miramax) – $3.32M
