Box Office: Watchmen Plummets 71%! The Rock Leads Race To Witch Mountain To $25M Opening

By Steve Mason/March 13, 2009 10:37 pm EST

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.2M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #5 opening and his third-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King and 2007’s The Game Plan).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS

  • not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns -

  1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening

  2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening

  3. Be Cool – $23.4M opening

  4. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

  5. Race To Witch Mountain – $22.7M opening (projected)

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER

  • ranked by total domestic box office -

  1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume

  2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume

  3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume

  4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume

  5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume

  6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume

  7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume

  8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume

  9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume

  10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume

  11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume

  12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume

  13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume

  14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume

  15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume

  16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume

  17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume

  18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume

  19. The Princess Bride – Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume

  20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume

  21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume

  22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume

  23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume

  24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume

  25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume

  26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume

  27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume

  28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume

  29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume

  30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.1M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.28M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

  1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.5M, $2,040 PTA, $6.5M cume

  2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.3M, $2,207 PTA, $5.3M cume

  3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.2M, $1,440 PTA, $73.13M cume

  4. Taken (Fox) – $1.9M, $665 PTA, $122.08M cume

  5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume

  6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $700,000, $307 PTA, $135.36M cume

  7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $650,000, $344 PTA, $86.74M cume

  8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $600,000, $377 PTA, $39.95M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

  1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume

  2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume

  3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14M, $5,831 PTA, $14M cume

  4. Taken (Fox) – $6.1M, $2,134 PTA, $126.28M cume

  5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume

  6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.59M, $1,135 PTA, $137.25M cume

  7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.08M, $1,101 PTA, $88.17M cume

  8. Coraline (Focus) – $2.07M, $1,174 PTA, $68.59M cume