Friday Box Office: Madagascar 2 Grabs $17M, Possible $58M Three-Day

By Steve Mason/Nov. 8, 2008 1:52 am EST

Reviews are solid (59% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), the playing field is wide open for 2 weeks with only Quantum of Solace (Sony) opening next Friday, and Mad 2 is decidedly multicultural, which means that, not only will this sequel be just as big overseas as its 2005 predecessor, but it also feels just right for a country that has just elected Barack Obama as President.  This is a far cry from the very “white bread” Bee Movie from the mind of Jerry Seinfeld (“What is the deal with that?”).

If my $57.8M number holds, Escape 2 Africa will become the all-time #4 opening for a non-Summer animated film released on a non-holiday. (I have screened out animated movies released May-August or for long holiday weekends.)

ALL-TIME TOP ANIMATED OPENINGS FOR NON-SUMMER SEASON/NON-HOLIDAY RELEASES

  1. The Incredibles – $70.4M

  2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68M

  3. Monsters, Inc. – $62.5M

  4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $57.8M (projected)

  5. Shark Tale – $47.6M

  6. Ice Age – $46.3M

  7. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – $45M

  8. Happy Feet – $41.5M

  9. Chicken Little – $40M

  10. Bee Movie – $38M

Also, Mad 2 will almost certainly become either the all-time 4th or 5th-biggest grossing animated movie from Dreamworks, surpassing the original Madagascar ($193.5M domestic), in the ballpark with this year’s Kung Fu Panda ($215.4M domestic) and trailing only Shrek 2 ($441.2M domestic) and Shrek the Third ($322.7M domestic) and the original Shrek ($267.6M domestic). Also in terms of overseas box office, I see no reason why this film cannot reach the $550M-$600M range in worldwide sales.

EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

  1. NEW – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $17M, $4,191 PTA, $17M cume

  2. NEW – Role Models (Universal) – $6M, $2,150 PTA, $6M cume

  3. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $2.62M, $758 PTA, $69M cume

  4. Changeling (Universal) — $2.1M, $1,132 PTA, $15.4M cume

  5. NEW – Soul Men (MGM) – $2M, $978 PTA, $2M cume

  6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $1.9M, $695 PTA, $16.3M cume

  7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $1.5M, $530 PTA, $49.6M cume

  8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $875,000, $371 PTA, $86.6M cume

  9. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $775,000, $525 PTA, $37.6M cume

EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

  1. NEW – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $57.8M, $14,250 PTA, $57.8M cume

  2. NEW – Role Models (Universal) – $15.9M, $5,697 PTA, $15.9M cume

  3. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $9.05M, $2,614 PTA, $75.4M cume

  4. Changeling (Universal) — $7.35M, $3,962 PTA, $20.6M cume

  5. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $6.3M, $2,303 PTA, $20.7M cume

  6. NEW – Soul Men (MGM) – $5.65M, $2,764 PTA, $5.65M cume

  7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $4.8M, $1,697 PTA, $52.92M cume

  8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $3.32M, $1,409 PTA, $89M cume

  9. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $2.4M, $1,628 PTA, $39.26M cume